久久亚洲国产成人影院-久久亚洲国产的中文-久久亚洲国产高清-久久亚洲国产精品-亚洲图片偷拍自拍-亚洲图色视频

US EUROPE AFRICA ASIA 中文
Business / View

Bubble Trouble: What can policy easing achieve?

By Wang Tao (chinadaily.com.cn) Updated: 2014-08-21 17:52

Property sector is the most important sector in China, considering its extensive linkage with other industries and importance in driving domestic growth and credit cycles. The biggest uncertainty for China's economy now and in 2015 is the nature and duration of the ongoing property downturn.

Following a sharp drop in the beginning of the year, property construction has shown signs of improvement in recent months as policies have been increasingly relaxed. Both have provided support for the economy and property related stocks, with the latter rallying by 17 percent from trough levels. We expect recent and further policy easing to help support property sales, starts, and construction in the run up to and around the "golden season" this fall.

However, near-term policy easing and improvement notwithstanding, we believe the property downturn reflects a structural turning point in the sector, and that policy easing can only help stabilize but not turn around the downshift. We expect commodity housing starts and construction to slow further by year end and into 2015, weighing more heavily on the economy.

In our earlier reports and forecasts, we had assumed that property policies would be increasingly relaxed and that construction and sales would improve in the summer/fall months. Even with additional policy easing including cuts in mortgage down payment requirement and rates, we see property sales and starts declining further in 2015 and GDP growth slowing to 6.8 percent.

Although the earlier than expected relaxation of property policies has boosted market sentiment, structural issues in the sector remain. As such, we think the re-rating will be capped by the higher leverage, falling margins, and high inventory levels of some property companies.

The article is co-authored with other UBS economists Harrison Hu, Eva Lee and Eugene Cheung. The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.

Hot Topics

Editor's Picks
...
...
主站蜘蛛池模板: 免费视频观看在线www日本 | 九草在线观看 | 91情侣在线偷精品国产 | 成人18网站 | 久久五 | 香港黄页亚洲一级 | 操欧美美女 | 台湾三级毛片 | 中文国产成人精品少久久 | 国产福利一区二区三区 | 欧美在线观看一区二区 | 全国男人天堂网 | 亚洲精品日本 | 亚洲欧美视频一级 | 日韩99在线 | 久久黄网站 | 美一级片 | 欧美japanese孕交 | 国产日韩亚洲欧美 | 欧美怡红院高清在线 | 日本高清专区一区二无线 | 亚洲精品一区二区三区四区 | 国产一级强片在线观看 | ririai99在线视频观看 | 97se亚洲综合在线韩国专区福利 | 日本一在线中文字幕天堂 | 97国产精品| 国产精品久久久久久久久免费观看 | 美女视频一区二区三区在线 | 国产中的精品一区的 | 曰韩毛片| 成人a毛片久久免费播放 | b毛片| 爱综合 | 免费视频毛片 | 精品成人毛片一区二区视 | 狠狠久久综合 | 日韩中文字幕免费在线观看 | 99精品久久久久久久免费看蜜月 | 欧美日韩一区二区三区免费 | 男操女b|