久久亚洲国产成人影院-久久亚洲国产的中文-久久亚洲国产高清-久久亚洲国产精品-亚洲图片偷拍自拍-亚洲图色视频

US EUROPE AFRICA ASIA 中文
Business / View

Reform key as new age begins

By JIANG XUEQING (China Daily) Updated: 2014-12-23 10:45

The economy is in a transitional period from the old mode to the new normal, and its growth rate is expected to range from 6.8 percent to 7.2 percent in 2015, economists said.

Reform key as new age begins

Shen Minggao, head of China research at Citigroup Global Markets Asia Ltd.

Shen Minggao, head of China research at Citigroup Global Markets Asia Ltd, said that China entered a new economic cycle this year. He has forecast that GDP growth will fluctuate between 6 and 7 percent in the next seven years. For next year, he has targeted 6.9 percent expansion.

The property slowdown has had a broad impact, and Shen said that as a result, GDP growth will decelerate to 6.7 percent in the first quarter of next year. But he also said that the housing market as well as the economy can avoid a hard landing.

"The experience of other countries has shown that when the urbanization rate is relatively low, every time housing prices are readjusted, it can be an opportunity for investment and demand growth," he said.

Before Japan's urbanization rate hit 75 percent, its investment-to-GDP ratio had generally risen. The same thing happened to South Korea, he said.

According to the government's targets, China's urbanization rate is expected to reach 60 percent in terms of permanent residents and 45 percent in terms of permanent residents who hold hukou (urban registration) by 2020.

Those targets are well below 75 percent, which was the inflection point for investment in Japan and South Korea.

"China should accelerate reform of the household registration system to unleash demand for investment and consumption," he said.

"We estimate that 150 million people, including migrant workers and their relatives, will settle in cities by 2020. That will reduce the pressure from overcapacity on the economy."

Shen said that the central government is likely to launch fiscal reform in 2015. By the end of next year, local government financing vehicles and their opaque funding will be replaced by local debt issues of provincial governments and public-private partnerships. The latter refers to cooperation between governments and private companies for the funding and operation of infrastructure or public services.

"If reform is driven forward, it will fundamentally change the financing structure of local governments, improve the efficiency of infrastructure investment and eventually reduce leverage at the local government level," he said.

Reform key as new age begins

Zhu Haibin, chief China economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Zhu Haibin, chief China economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co, said that fixed-asset investment may account for 40 percent of GDP in 2015, falling from nearly 50 percent this year but remaining at the world's highest level.

As investment continues to fall, China is attaching greater importance to consumption. But Zhu warned that economic growth will fall rapidly if the government overemphasizes the contribution of consumption to economic growth while ignoring the contribution of investment.

"It's hard to maintain 7 percent growth simply with the support of consumption. The government should strike a balance between investment and consumption," he said.

In his view, the biggest financial risk next year will come from corporate debt, which was equivalent to 136 percent of GDP as of the third quarter.

To handle that risk, the government is considering turning from debt financing to equity financing.

And what of monetary policy? The People's Bank of China cut benchmark interest rates in November, and Zhu forecast that the central bank will cut rates further in the first quarter of next year. The PBOC will also lower banks' reserve requirement ratios two or three times in the first half of 2015.

Hot Topics

Editor's Picks
...
主站蜘蛛池模板: 日韩精品一区二区三区免费观看 | 69xxx·com| 久久久全国免费视频 | 久久99欧美| 中国三级毛片 | 欧美成人高清手机在线视频 | 久久网站免费观看 | 乱人伦中文视频在线观看免费 | 国产成人tv在线观看 | 国产免费一区不卡在线 | 欧美亚洲日本韩国一级毛片 | 欧美在线视频免费 | 亚洲成人网页 | 国产精品久久久久久久久99热 | 亚洲伊人成人 | 黄网国产| 亚洲一区二区三区免费在线观看 | 免费一级淫片aaa片毛片a级 | 免费一级毛片女人图片 | 国产在线欧美日韩精品一区二区 | 国内91视频 | 玖草在线 | 一本久道久久综合婷婷五 | 日本在线国产 | 欧美在线视频 一区二区 | jiucao在线观看精品 | 亚洲欧美综合国产精品一区 | 国产伦子伦视频免费 | 手机看片久久青草福利盒子 | 国产精品高清在线观看93 | 一个人看的免费高清视频日本 | 久久综合给合久久狠狠狠97色69 | 日韩色吧 | 国产日韩不卡免费精品视频 | 男女免费爽爽爽在线视频 | 三级毛片免费看 | 国产一区二区精品久久凹凸 | 悠悠影院欧美日韩国产 | 国产精品网址 | 国产玖玖视频 | 国产亚洲欧美ai在线看片 |