In a three-sector breakdown, the mining industry's value-added growth was 6.2 percent month-on-month; while that of manufacturing was 10 percent; and utilities, 1.9 percent.

The money supply data showed a much more marked fall. The increase in new loans, totaling 385.1 billion yuan, nearly half of the anticipated amount, was the smallest since December 2009.

So far, in no area has the decline, either in investment or in loans, suggested a contracting economy.

However, as the theory of secular stagnation suggests, there must be enough investment to support long-term growth. It is as true of the United States, in order to take full advantage of the opportunity to revamp its manufacturing, as it is of China, which also needs new investment to phase out factories built 20 to 30 years ago.

The central government will still protect growth in the second half of the year. The most important thing, as Chinese leaders rightly say, is not just to achieve a certain GDP target, but rather to lay the foundation for the country's transition.

The author is editor-at-large of China Daily. Contact the writer at [email protected]