The value of Taiwan's exports likely fell in June compared to the previous
month, prompted by rising inventory and lower prices in the technology sector.
The island's exports in June likely totaled US$18.17 billion (euro14.4
billion), according to the average forecast of four economists surveyed by Dow
Jones Newswires. That's lower than US$18.93 billion in May.
Imports likely reached US$17.20 billion, down from May's US$18.21 billion.
Compared with a year earlier, six economists forecast an average rise of
15.16 percent for June exports, and 13.17 percent for imports. In May, exports
rose 10.50 percent and imports grew 12.30 percent.
"The year-on-year change may still look good, but that's simply because of a
very low base," said Forest Chen, an economist at Taiwan Securities Investment
Advisory.
Chen said makers of electronics, Taiwan's main export product, will struggle
to unload their inventories in the third quarter as demand falls in what is
usually a busy season.
Delays in Sony Corp.'s launch of its video game player PlayStation 3 to early
November, and Microsoft Corp.'s launch of its Windows Vista software to early
2007 will likely encourage consumers to put off purchases, he said.
"Demand is unlikely to pick up until some time around September," he said.
The latest data from U.S.-based Institute for Supply Management underscores
the murky outlook for Taiwan exports, said Chinatrust Commercial Bank economist
Alan Liao.
Earlier this week, the ISM said its manufacturing activity index moved to
53.8 in June, from 54.4 in May and 57.3 in April. June's reading came in below
the 55.0 reading that was the consensus expectation of forecasters surveyed by
Dow Jones Newswires.
The U.S. is the second-largest export destination for Taiwan, after the Chinese mainland and
Hong Kong combined.
