久久亚洲国产成人影院-久久亚洲国产的中文-久久亚洲国产高清-久久亚洲国产精品-亚洲图片偷拍自拍-亚洲图色视频

 
 
 

當前位置: Language Tips> 雙語新聞

房價下跌:恐慌還是期望?

Home prices spurring a panic or patience?

中國日報網(wǎng) 2014-06-04 09:37

 

房價下跌:恐慌還是期望?

查看原文

Property prices across China, often seen as a barometer of the overall health of the economy, are once again on the front pages. But this time, a real sense of panic appears to be the main message.

Across more and more second- and third-tier cities, prices have been as much as halved in some cases amid reports of overcapacity and a collapse in demand.

But is this really the beginning of the bursting of a far bigger property bubble across China, or is it simply a reflection of a slightly hasty and badly thought out construction craze outside of China's first-tier cities?

First-tier cities such as Beijing and Shanghai have enjoyed an unparalleled economic boom in comparison with China's numerous provincial capitals and smaller cities. It must be highlighted here that this is not just a property boom but major development of all aspects of urban infrastructure such as transportation, health and education.Before attempting to examine this question, it is essential to present briefly the nature of China's miraculous economic emergence over the past 20 to 30 years. Of course, massive gains in prosperity have been achieved, but such has been the breakneck speed of this advancement in riches that, at this moment in time, an extremely unbalanced level of development is the result.

It is still the case that far more than 60 percent of all inbound foreign direct investment is attracted to the top-tier cities and nearby areas.

Career opportunities, especially the more lucrative international business opportunities, remain solely a first-tier city attraction. Average salaries outside first-tier cities rarely reach 50 percent of those inside.

As a result, it is hopelessly misguided and even fatuous to "lump" together one apparently cohesive Chinese property market. As most markets emerge and progress, so does the need for accurate segmentation.

It is, therefore, critical to introduce several economic and infrastructure-related segmentation variables in order to dissect China's property market effectively and assess any extent to which a "bubble" is apparent。

Property prices across China's first-tier cities have cooled in recent times, a reflection of the cooling in the Chinese economy overall. There will not be any price crash in first-tier cities, merely a cooling, followed by far more modest gains from now on.

But recent price panics in more and more of China's second- and third-tier cities don't signal the start of any bubble-bursting process generally.

Rather, they're a welcome reminder of the chasm in development levels between first-tier cities and beyond. Far too many new homes have been built outside first-tier cities, and foolish attempts have been made to piggyback on first-tier city prices when the economic opportunities and infrastructure both fall woefully short.

As a result, there may be more quite massive reductions in the prices of new homes in many second- and third-tier cities, especially those that do not benefit from relatively close geographical proximity to China's first-tier cities. There will also almost certainly be a quite substantial cut in investment into and construction of more new homes in many second- and third-tier cities.

But ... there will not be a major nationwide property crash similar to those witnessed recently in the United States and not that long ago in the United Kingdom.

First-tier city property prices will remain robust and in the more select areas of these cities, prices may even rise significantly and relentlessly, not too dissimilar to the seemingly unstoppable rise in London property prices while the rest of the UK market remains fairly flat.

All future analysis of China's property "market" should first pay sufficient attention to the presence of very different segments: currently key variables being city income and infrastructure.

Expect greater fragmentation of China's property market with smaller and smaller market segments defined by smaller and smaller geographical areas.

No need for any nationwide property price panic. But there is a need for studious segmentation, strategic thinking and more modest economic expectations.

查看譯文

在中國,房地產(chǎn)價格通常被視為經(jīng)濟總體健康狀況的“晴雨表”。如今,房價再次成為焦點。但這一次,它帶來的是真正意義上的恐慌。

有報告指出,由于產(chǎn)能過剩和需求崩潰,越來越多的二、三線城市房價下滑,某些房價已下跌近50%。

但這真的是預示著中國更巨大的房產(chǎn)泡沫開始破裂?或僅僅只是人們對于中國非一線城市建設熱潮有些倉促的多慮呢?

與中國眾多的省會城市和小城市相比,諸如北京、上海這樣的一線城市取得了空前的經(jīng)濟繁榮。必須強調(diào)的是,這些一線城市所取得的不僅是房地產(chǎn)方面的繁榮,還伴隨著基礎設施,如交通、醫(yī)療和教育等方面的重大發(fā)展。因此,在我們審視這個問題之前,有必要對中國過去二、三十年所創(chuàng)造的經(jīng)濟奇跡做一個簡短的回顧。誠然,我們已經(jīng)取得巨大的發(fā)展成就,但是這些飛速發(fā)展主要體現(xiàn)在一線城市,結(jié)果最終導致了中國目前極其不平衡的發(fā)展水平。

事實上,一線城市和附近地區(qū)吸引了超過60%的入境外商直接投資。

一線城市同樣也造就了大量的就業(yè)機會,尤其是收入頗豐的國際商業(yè)機會。非一線城市的平均工資幾乎只有一線城市平均工資的一半。

因此,將表面上緊密結(jié)合的中國房地產(chǎn)市場混為一談是無可救藥的誤導,甚至是愚蠢的。隨著多數(shù)市場的出現(xiàn)和發(fā)展,也出現(xiàn)了對準確分割的需要。

因此,需要引入一些經(jīng)濟和基礎設施的關鍵細分變量來對中國房地產(chǎn)市場進行有效剖析,并對“房地產(chǎn)泡沫”的明顯程度進行評估。

近年來,中國一線城市房價上漲勢頭已經(jīng)回落,這也是中國整體經(jīng)濟增長勢頭有所冷卻的縮影。但這僅僅只是冷卻,一線城市的房價不可能發(fā)生崩潰,并且緊隨其后的更多的是從現(xiàn)在開始的小幅上漲。

但最近越來越多中國二、三線城市房價下跌所引發(fā)的恐慌并不代表房地產(chǎn)泡沫開始破滅。

相反,這是一個積極的信號,預示著非一線城市與一線城市之間的差距在縮小。當經(jīng)濟發(fā)展機會和基礎設施都嚴重短缺時,二、三線城市建房過量,諸多開發(fā)商都懷著借助一線城市房價的愚蠢意圖。

結(jié)果是在許多二三線城市,尤其是那些遠離一線城市沒有地理優(yōu)勢的地方,可能迎來更大規(guī)模的房價下跌。因此幾乎可以肯定,對于二、三線城市的投資以及新住房建設都將會銳減。

但是,全國性的房地產(chǎn)重大崩盤并不會上演。類似的例子可參照最近的美國以及很久以前的英國。

一線城市房價將繼續(xù)保持堅挺,并且其部分區(qū)域房價甚至還會大幅顯著地上升,這跟倫敦房價大幅上漲,而英國其余區(qū)域房價仍相當平穩(wěn)的情況極為相似。

關于中國未來房地產(chǎn)“市場”的所有分析中,首先應充分關注市場中截然不同的部分:目前的關鍵變量是城市收入和基礎設施。

通過較小的地理區(qū)域劃分的較小的市場分割來看待中國房地產(chǎn)市場這個較大的局面。

我們無需對全國性房價下跌感到恐慌。我們需要的是對房地產(chǎn)市場進行專業(yè)細致的分割、戰(zhàn)略思考,并對此持更溫和的經(jīng)濟預期。

(譯者 HATA 編輯 丹妮)

掃一掃,關注微博微信

房價下跌:恐慌還是期望? 房價下跌:恐慌還是期望?

 
中國日報網(wǎng)英語點津版權說明:凡注明來源為“中國日報網(wǎng)英語點津:XXX(署名)”的原創(chuàng)作品,除與中國日報網(wǎng)簽署英語點津內(nèi)容授權協(xié)議的網(wǎng)站外,其他任何網(wǎng)站或單位未經(jīng)允許不得非法盜鏈、轉(zhuǎn)載和使用,違者必究。如需使用,請與010-84883561聯(lián)系;凡本網(wǎng)注明“來源:XXX(非英語點津)”的作品,均轉(zhuǎn)載自其它媒體,目的在于傳播更多信息,其他媒體如需轉(zhuǎn)載,請與稿件來源方聯(lián)系,如產(chǎn)生任何問題與本網(wǎng)無關;本網(wǎng)所發(fā)布的歌曲、電影片段,版權歸原作者所有,僅供學習與研究,如果侵權,請?zhí)峁┌鏅嘧C明,以便盡快刪除。

中國日報網(wǎng)雙語新聞

掃描左側(cè)二維碼

添加Chinadaily_Mobile
你想看的我們這兒都有!

中國日報雙語手機報

點擊左側(cè)圖標查看訂閱方式

中國首份雙語手機報
學英語看資訊一個都不能少!

關注和訂閱

本文相關閱讀
人氣排行
熱搜詞
 
 
精華欄目
 

閱讀

詞匯

視聽

翻譯

口語

合作

 

關于我們 | 聯(lián)系方式 | 招聘信息

Copyright by chinadaily.com.cn. All rights reserved. None of this material may be used for any commercial or public use. Reproduction in whole or in part without permission is prohibited. 版權聲明:本網(wǎng)站所刊登的中國日報網(wǎng)英語點津內(nèi)容,版權屬中國日報網(wǎng)所有,未經(jīng)協(xié)議授權,禁止下載使用。 歡迎愿意與本網(wǎng)站合作的單位或個人與我們聯(lián)系。

電話:8610-84883645

傳真:8610-84883500

Email: [email protected]

主站蜘蛛池模板: 91探花福利精品国产自产在线 | 成人午夜视频在线播放 | 亚洲精品一区二区观看 | 国产精品一久久香蕉国产线看 | 日本加勒比在线视频 | 欧美成人h版在线观看 | 99爱在线精品视频网站 | 韩国免费网站成人 | 成年人免费在线视频 | 久久爱一区 | 国产男女交性视频播放免费bd | 免费看一级欧美激情毛片 | 亚洲第一页在线播放 | 日本一级特黄特色大片免费视频 | 亚洲精品一区 | 大陆孕妇孕交视频自拍 | 亚洲天堂2018av | 欧美在线乱妇一级毛片 | 成年人免费网站在线观看 | 国产精品久久久久久免费 | 欧美顶级毛片在线播放 | 久草视频免费在线 | 男人天堂新地址 | 国产精品一级香蕉一区 | 久久久久依人综合影院 | 在线精品日韩一区二区三区 | 一级黄视频 | 亚洲情a成黄在线观看动 | 国产亚洲精品福利片 | 黄a 大片a v 永久免费 | 国产自在自线午夜精品视频 | 99je全部都是精品视频在线 | 日韩第五页 | 一级做a爱 一区 | 黄 色 成 年 人小说 | a级黄色毛片免费播放视频 a级精品九九九大片免费看 | 一道精品视频一区二区三区图片 | 国产精品中文字幕在线观看 | 午夜三级a三点 | 一级片免费在线播放 | 91精品一区二区三区在线播放 |