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Analysis of Enterprise Questionnaire Survey on Export Growth during the First Half of 2014
By Zhao Jinping & Zhao Fujun 2015-07-23
By Zhao Jinping & Zhao Fujun, Research Team on "Analysis on Foreign Trade and Econmies", Research Department of Foreign Economic Relations of DRC
Research Report, No. 106, 2014 (Total 4605)
A total of 546 questionnaires had been received from the survey on export growth during the first half of 2014. Out of that 386 were conducted through telephone interview and 160 were made on the spot. These questionnaires, representing a number of typical cases, were from 348 small-sized enterprises, 185 medium-sized enterprises and 13 large-sized enterprises , in more than 20 provinces and municipalities including Beijing, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Shanxi, Chongqing and Sichuan.
I. Export Growth of the Enterprises Surveyed from January to May in 2014
1. Nearly 50% the respondents reported a certain increase in export, showing a slightly higher percentage over the survey results of the same period of last year.
According to the present survey results, 43.3% of the enterprises reported an export growth from January to May (these enterprises were divided into two groups: one reported an increase of 5%-20% and the other over 20%); 22.2% of the respondents revealed their export value was basically the same as that of last year; 34.5% of them reported a decline in export (these enterprises were also divided into two groups: one suffered a decline of 5%-20% and the other more than 20%).Compared with last year's situation, this year's number of enterprises that suffered an export decline was 21.7 percentage points higher; the number of enterprises with basically unchanged export value dropped by 28.2 percentage points; the number of those with increased export was 6.5 percentage points higher year on year. This indicates that this year's export situation was slightly better than last year with an obvious trend of polarization.
Table 1 Export Growth of the Enterprises Surveyed
|
The proportion of respondents (%) |
||
|
Survey conducted in May 2013 |
Survey conducted in May 2014 |
|
|
A sharp decline (worse than -20% ) |
1.7 |
7.0 |
|
A small decline (-20%－-5%) |
11.1 |
27.5 |
|
Basically the same (-5%－5%) |
50.4 |
22.2 |
|
A small increase (5%－20%) |
30.6 |
28.8 |
|
A substantial increase (over 20%) |
6.2 |
14.5 |
|
Total |
100.0 |
100.0 |
Source: Survey results by Research Group.
2. Medium-sized enterprises (MSEs) faced a more stern export situation than large and small-sized enterprises (LSEs and SSEs).
According to the present survey results, between January and May this year, 34.6% of MSEs saw an export increase, 12.2 and 34.7 percentage points less than SSEs and LSEs respectively; 59.5% of MSEs suffered an export decline, 37.6 and 36.5 percentage points higher than SSEs and LSEs respectively. In comparison with last year's situation, the number of various types of enterprises that suffered an export decline had increased, and MSEs even suffered a sharper decline, dropped by 48.8 percentage points more than last year. The number of LSEs and SSEs that report an export increase had risen by 17.1 and 15.1 percentage points year on year respectively, while the number of MSEs reporting an export increase had dropped by 1.2 percentage points. This indicates that MSEs were facing a more difficult export situation than LSEs and SSEs. On the whole, the situation was better for LSEs.
3. The food industry was facing a better export situation than the chemical and pharmaceutical industries.
As is shown by the survey results, the number of food enterprises that reported an export decline was 17.7%, lower than that of other industries surveyed; and the number of food enterprises that reported an export growth was 61.8%, higher than that of other industries surveyed. Judging from that, the food industry enjoyed a better export situation. Although in some industries the number of enterprises with decreased export was significantly higher than last year's survey results, in such industries as food, textiles & garments, materials and machinery the number of enterprises with increased export volume was higher year on year. The chemical industry was an exception, where the number of enterprises reporting an export increase was lower year on year and the number of those reporting an export decline was 43.8 percentage points higher over the same period of last year, indicating a more severe export situation.
4. Export to Europe increased relatively fast, but export to Japan and ASEAN countries decreased.
According to the survey, the number of enterprises with an increased export to Europe and relevant regions was above 50%, higher than the export to other major markets; the number of enterprises with a decreased export to Europe and relevant regions was respectively 20.5% and 10.5%, both lower than the decreased export to other major markets. This shows that export to Europe and relevant regions had increased at a relatively fast pace. In comparison with last year's survey results, the number of enterprises with a decreased export to various regions had increased significantly, but the number of enterprises with an increased export to Europe, the US, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan and some other regions was higher than the same period last year. In particular, the number of enterprises with an increased export volume to Japan and ASEAN countries was respectively 12.0 and 26.4 percentage points lower than last year's survey results.
5. Compared with enterprises in the eastern region, those in the central and western regions witnessed a better export environment.
According to survey results, the number of enterprises reporting an export growth was above 50% in Shanxi, Hunan and Sichuan, higher than that in Beijing, Guangdong, Fujian in the eastern region; the number of enterprises with a decreased export in Shanxi, Chongqing, Hunan and Sichuan was smaller than that in the eastern region such as Beijing and Guangdong. This shows that enterprises in the central and western regions were facing a better export situation than those in the eastern region. In comparison with last year's survey results, the present survey reveals that the number of enterprises with a decreased export had risen considerably in Beijing and Guangdong, showing a deteriorated export situation. Compared with the case of last year, the number of enterprises recording an increased export was slightly higher in Guangdong, whereas it was lower in Beijing.
II. Analysis of Export Benefits of the Enterprises Surveyed
1. SSEs and enterprises in the food, materials and machinery industries were facing the pressure of rising export cost
The survey results show that 33.9% of the respondents reported an upward trend of export cost between January and May this year, 16.4 percentage points less than last year's survey results; the proportion of respondents with basically unchanged or decreased (slightly decreased and significantly decreased) export cost was bigger year on year. On the whole, the pressure of rising cost sustained by export enterprises had been eased to some extent.
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