Contrary to many commentators' views, I doubt whether the government of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea will back down and agree to negotiations that will ultimately make it end its guided missile or nuclear weapons programs. The origin of the DPRK's stubborn belief in the power of nuclear blackmail was reinforced by events nearly two years ago.

As soon as it became obvious that the Libyan leader Muammar Gadhafi was going to be overthrown, the DPRK news agency Korean Central News Agency reported that the biggest mistake Gadhafi had committed was to dismantle his nuclear weapons program in deference to a promise that numerous Western governments had made that Libya would not be treated like a pariah state if it did so.

KCNA said at the time that it would never dismantle its nuclear weapons or guided missile programs under any circumstances because of NATO's active involvement in the overthrow of Gadhafi, which demonstrated that the West, especially the United States, could never be trusted to keep its word.

Ross Grainger, via e-mail

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(China Daily 04/15/2013 page9)