久久亚洲国产成人影院-久久亚洲国产的中文-久久亚洲国产高清-久久亚洲国产精品-亚洲图片偷拍自拍-亚洲图色视频

US EUROPE AFRICA ASIA 中文
Opinion / Op-Ed Contributors

Overcoming growth risks with more relaxed environment

By Xiao Geng (China Daily) Updated: 2014-12-29 07:45

It is important that macro regulators and policymakers do not intervene too much in structural problems and tolerate more natural market-oriented failures because they are symbiotic with success in the ecology of market competition. In other words, ghost towns and great cities, overcapacity and bottlenecks, excessive debts and excessive savings are all the new normal in a dynamic and fast-growing market economy. As China's market matures, the good parts will expand at the expense of the bad parts. What the government needs to do is to provide the right platforms for facilitating structural changes, such as deposit insurance, bankruptcy mechanisms and negative lists, which are the right micro-tools for dealing with specific structural cases.

The role of monetary authorities in an economy such as China's should be narrowed down to basically two primary macro goals:

The first would be to keep China's inflation higher than that of the US (assuming the renminbi-dollar exchange rate is relatively stable), because China's real return, real growth rate and real productivity growth are much higher than that of the US, and the prices of non-tradable goods and assets in China still have a lot of potential to catch up with those in the US. So deflation should not happen at this stage of China's development unless the money supply is too tight. China should and can avoid either deflation or hyperinflation.

The second goal of China's monetary authorities should be to stabilize the real interest rate at a low but positive level, say about 1 to 2 percent over the medium and long run. This means nominal interest rates need to be a bit higher than the inflation rate. Since the adjustment of interest rates could easily lead to volatility in securities markets, it may be easier and more important for the PBoC to target and stabilize the medium- and long-term inflation rate between 3 and 5 percent by implementing a more flexible and accommodating money supply.

The Central Economic Work Conference held from Dec 9 to 11 made stable growth the top priority for 2015. This means the growth rate for 2015 is likely to be about 7 to 7.5 percent. It also means overall macro conditions in 2015 should be more relaxed than in 2014, because a more relaxed macro environment is crucial not only for arresting the PPI deflation but also for offsetting the austerity effects of many structural and micro reforms such as the anti-corruption campaign, State-owned enterprises reform, and regulations on land use and the environment.

With the lagging effects of macro policy, China's real economy is likely to continue to grow slowly for a few months before more aggressive macro relaxation measures, such as the lowering of reserve requirement ratios for banks, are put in place. In the meantime, reforms toward financial deepening may be expedited given the authorities' strong intention to deleverage the banking sector, promote the internationalization of the renminbi, and encourage the development of the bond and securities market.

The new normal could well see the authorities trying and managing growth risks by implementing many substantial and systemic reforms at the structural and micro level as well as by promoting financial deepening.

The author is senior fellow and vice-president of Fung Global Institute.

Previous Page 1 2 Next Page

Most Viewed Today's Top News
...
主站蜘蛛池模板: 日本最色视频 | 欧美国产精品不卡在线观看 | 九九精品免费视频 | 亚洲日本中文字幕在线 | 国产精品久久久久久久久久久久久久 | 日韩午夜在线观看 | 97久久精品国产精品青草 | 男人和女人的做刺激性视频 | 国产精品99r8免费视频2022 | 1204国产成人精品视频 | 日韩一区二区三区在线观看 | 日本午夜视频 | 日韩视频一区二区 | 亚州在线播放 | 国产成人做受免费视频 | 91九色国产| 久久中文字幕久久久久 | 人碰人碰人成人免费视频 | 欧美高清不卡 | 精品久久久久久中文字幕 | 成人免费观看高清在线毛片 | 国产成人www免费人成看片 | 国产精品一区久久 | 国产一区二区在线 |播放 | 国产三级小视频在线观看 | 日本三级中文字幕 | 亚洲一区二区三区影院 | 欧美性生交大片免费看 | 草草视频在线免费观看 | 国产日韩精品欧美一区喷 | 男人看片网址 | 521a久久九九久久精品 | 欧美日韩一区二区在线视频 | 久久九九精品视频 | a级高清| 日韩中文字幕免费观看 | 俄罗斯黄色毛片 | 久久精品视频在线观看 | 亚洲美女视频免费 | 求欧美精品网址 | 女人一级一级毛片 |