久久亚洲国产成人影院-久久亚洲国产的中文-久久亚洲国产高清-久久亚洲国产精品-亚洲图片偷拍自拍-亚洲图色视频

USEUROPEAFRICAASIA 中文雙語Fran?ais
Opinion
Home / Opinion / Op-Ed Contributors

In govt's policy plans, stability is the key

By Louis Kuijs | China Daily | Updated: 2017-03-28 07:30

In govt's policy plans, stability is the key

A ship loads containers at a terminal in Qingdao, Shandong province. [Photo/China Daily]

The government's economic plans for 2017, presented at the recently concluded National People's Congress, China's top legislature, indicate that, despite more emphasis on containing financial risks, solid economic growth remains central to the economic and financial "stability", which the government considers essential in the run-up to the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, scheduled for the fall of this year.

The GDP growth target of "around 6.5 percent, slightly higher if possible in practice" will require continued accommodative macroeconomic policy and increases in the credit to GDP ratio. On the fiscal side, the issuance of special local government bonds and use of "special funds" are likely to raise the cash fiscal deficit to 4.3 percent of GDP this year. In addition, quasi-fiscal activity continues apace in order to finance infrastructure spending.

The monetary targets and plans imply a slightly less accommodative stance than last year, with overall credit growth, excluding equity and adjusted for local government bond issuance, targeted at 14.8 percent, only slightly less than in 2016.

China's central bank will need to walk a fine line to achieve this while also firming up monetary conditions to contain leverage and risks in financial markets as well as to respond to higher US interest rates and the resulting pressure on the foreign exchange market. Following recent increases in inter-bank rates engineered by the central bank, we expect it to raise inter-bank interest rates further and to carefully tighten regulation in shadow banking, especially in asset management. But we do not expect increases in benchmark interest rates any time soon.

Given the pressure on the foreign exchange market, we expect the authorities to continue to intervene to prevent the yuan from depreciating by a large margin, while clamping down on financial outflows, if needed with forceful measures.

Senior officials have recently stressed the need to "avoid property market fluctuations", that is, to avoid too much strength as well as too much weakness. The central government has asked local governments to "contain excessive home price rises in hot cities", through measures such as increasing land supply and tightening housing purchase restrictions, while instructing local governments in smaller cities to stimulate housing sales. However, property tax legislation is still not on the legislative agenda.

The central government aims to remove another 50 million tons of excess capacity in steel and 150 million tons in coal mining this year, following a good start last year, while continuing to support the resettlement of affected employees, using special "adjustment funds" and fiscal transfers.

As experiments with "mixed ownership" reforms of State-owned enterprises continue, the government is also allowing private capital to take a minority share in SOEs in sectors dominated by them, in part in order to meet the need for financing. It has promised to open the competitive areas of the power, oil and gas sectors to private enterprises. But given the lack of progress in this area over the last 10 years, it remains to be seen how much progress will be made this time around. Indeed, in our view, the progress on levelling the playing field between SOEs and other companies remains unconvincing.

China is a major beneficiary of globalization, and the government wants this phenomenon to continue despite the increasing international headwinds. Following the US' withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement, the Chinese government has promoted free trade and investment, including establishing a free trade area of the Asia Pacific region.

And amid complaints by Western companies and governments about the lack of access to markets in China, the government has promised to further open up to foreign companies and financial institutions, following moves earlier this year to give them easier access. It has also vowed to further relax investment restrictions on foreign investors and encourage overseas-invested companies to list and issue bonds in China.

In conclusion, the government's economic plans for this year show that, despite more emphasis on containing financial risks, solid economic growth is still a key objective. In all, the planned macro stance is somewhat less generous than last year.

The author is head of Asia economics at Oxford Economics.

Most Viewed in 24 Hours
Copyright 1995 - . All rights reserved. The content (including but not limited to text, photo, multimedia information, etc) published in this site belongs to China Daily Information Co (CDIC). Without written authorization from CDIC, such content shall not be republished or used in any form. Note: Browsers with 1024*768 or higher resolution are suggested for this site.
License for publishing multimedia online 0108263

Registration Number: 130349
FOLLOW US
主站蜘蛛池模板: 久久精品视屏 | 国产呦系列免费 | 成年人免费大片 | a级毛片在线看日本 | 男人的天堂免费网站 | 欧美成人黄色网 | 亚洲精品高清在线观看 | 亚洲一区二区三区福利在线 | 国产综合亚洲专区在线 | 国产第一草草影院 | 精品国产成人三级在线观看 | 欧美色网在线 | 狠狠色狠狠色综合久久一 | 国产精品午夜性视频 | 国产高清一级视频在线观看 | 亚洲成a人片在线播放 | 91久久亚洲精品一区二区 | 亚洲欧美日韩精品香蕉 | 久久精品国产免费中文 | 国产成人啪一区二区 | 亚洲综合久久久久久中文字幕 | 怡红院免费播放全部视频 | 国产女乱淫真高清免费视频 | 热99re久久精品2久久久 | 美女张开腿让男人桶的动态图 | 欧美人在线一区二区三区 | 久草播放 | 欧美国产精品一区二区免费 | 国产成人精品日本亚洲语音2 | 手机毛片在线 | 一级成人a免费视频 | 欧美日韩高清在线观看一区二区 | 亚洲图片一区二区 | 67id人成国产在线 | 欧美特黄高清免费观看的 | 国产99在线播放 | 亚洲精品专区一区二区欧美 | 一级一级毛片免费播放 | 成人高清在线观看 | 伊在人亚洲香蕉精品区 | 国产成人综合久久精品红 |